Cardinals

2026

#15 of 30Average· .500 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

50-45 .526

xRecord · simulator

46-49 +3.9 vs expected

Grade

OffenseC·PitchingC

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Cardinals50-45

Offense: Elite quality, weak discipline. Pitching: Elite hr suppression, bottom-tier quiet contact.

Run differential

+6 run diff

Score 4.5/g, allow 4.5/g — run prevention carries them.

Sim vs. results

3.9 wins above expected

The simulator expected 46.1 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 50.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

offense

CRuns/g 4.5 · 15th of 30

Elite quality, weak discipline.

Power (HR%): 3.0%20th of 30
Discipline (BB%): 8.5%22nd of 30
Contact (K%): 20.5%5th of 30
Quality (Hard-hit%): 41.4%4th of 30

Plays like: Royals, Mets

pitching

CRuns allowed/g 4.5 · 15th of 30

Elite hr suppression, bottom-tier quiet contact.

HR suppression (HR%): 2.6%3rd of 30
Command (BB%): 9.0%13th of 30
Strikeouts (K%): 20.2%28th of 30
Quiet contact (Hard-hit%): 41.6%30th of 30

Plays like: Marlins, Orioles

The grade comes from runs scored per game (offense) and runs allowed per game (pitching) — what actually drives the run differential and the strength rank. Each spoke is this team's rank among all 30 teams on a rate stat (further out = better); “plays like” comes from that rate shape.

Hitters

Every hitter, with 89% uncertainty

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

Dot = best estimate; bar = 89% uncertainty range.
Click any player to open their page.

← WorseBetter →

League Avg
(0.440)

0.0000.2600.5200.7801.040

BB% vs HR%

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts). Hover a headshot for the player.

HR%

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with 89% uncertainty

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

Dot = best estimate; bar = 89% uncertainty range.
Click any player to open their page.

← BetterWorse →

League Avg
(0.456)

0.2520.3560.4610.5650.669

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded). Hover a headshot for the player.

HR% allowed

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+552

bases above replacement · 23rd of 30 teams · from 29 players

Who carried the team

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm on one scale — hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them, both measured against a freely-available replacement.
The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever); green is above replacement, rose below.
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

← BelowAbove →

Above replacement