Athletics

2026

#27 of 30Bottom-tier· .431 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

41-55 .427

xRecord · simulator

45-51 -4.4 vs expected

Grade

OffenseC-·PitchingF

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Athletics41-55

Offense: Strong quality, average contact. Pitching: Strong quiet contact, bottom-tier hr suppression.

Run differential

-106 run diff

Score 4.4/g, allow 5.5/g — the pitching is the leak — they allow more than they should.

Sim vs. results

4.4 wins below expected

The simulator expected 45.4 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 41.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

offense

C-Runs/g 4.4 · 17th of 30

Strong quality, average contact.

Power (HR%): 3.2%13th of 30
Discipline (BB%): 9.2%11th of 30
Contact (K%): 22.7%19th of 30
Quality (Hard-hit%): 40.7%10th of 30

Plays like: Pirates, Rangers

pitching

FRuns allowed/g 5.5 · 29th of 30

Strong quiet contact, bottom-tier hr suppression.

HR suppression (HR%): 3.9%29th of 30
Command (BB%): 10.0%27th of 30
Strikeouts (K%): 21.8%19th of 30
Quiet contact (Hard-hit%): 38.1%8th of 30

Plays like: Astros, Padres

The grade comes from runs scored per game (offense) and runs allowed per game (pitching) — what actually drives the run differential and the strength rank. Each spoke is this team's rank among all 30 teams on a rate stat (further out = better); “plays like” comes from that rate shape.

Hitters

Every hitter, with 89% uncertainty

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

Dot = best estimate; bar = 89% uncertainty range.
Click any player to open their page.

← WorseBetter →

League Avg
(0.440)

0.0000.2430.4860.7300.973

BB% vs HR%

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts). Hover a headshot for the player.

HR%

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with 89% uncertainty

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

Dot = best estimate; bar = 89% uncertainty range.
Click any player to open their page.

← BetterWorse →

League Avg
(0.456)

0.2520.3680.4840.6000.716

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded). Hover a headshot for the player.

HR% allowed

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+585

bases above replacement · 19th of 30 teams · from 32 players

Who carried the team

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm on one scale — hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them, both measured against a freely-available replacement.
The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever); green is above replacement, rose below.
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

← BelowAbove →

Above replacement

Nick Kurtz Hitter

167

Tyler Soderstrom Hitter

Shea Langeliers Hitter

Lawrence Butler Hitter