Works counts and puts the ball in play; modest slug.
Gets on base by working the count
Pavin Smith walks at an elite clip — better than 93% of qualified hitters. The contact is soft, though — only 37% of qualified hitters hit the ball with less authority. Early-season read — only 89 plate appearances so far.
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 463 qualified hitters.
Data through 2026-07-15.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the hitters whose profile looks most like this one.
Every plate appearance ends one of three ways: a strikeout (0 bases), a walk (1 base), or a ball in play worth its estimated bases.
The bar splits his value into those pieces, versus the league.
More bases is better. In the table, 100th percentile = best in MLB.
Ball-in-play basesWalk bases
Bases per plate appearance
.254
.112
Pavin Smith
.351
.084
League average
What a replacement bat would have done
over Pavin Smith's 89 plate appearances
33
Pavin Smith
32
Replacement level
▲ +0 bases above replacement (created 33 vs 32)
Pavin Smith
League
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better)
.370
.510
61st
Walk rate(higher = better)
11%
8%
93rd
Strikeout rate(fewer = better)
20%
23%
52nd
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA)
Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 89% credible interval.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.
Headline EB/PA (0.434)
vs LHP5 PA0.372
vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.372 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.301 to 0.443, based on 5 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.144 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHP rate (0.144) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHP84 PA0.453
vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.453 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.391 to 0.520, based on 84 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.379 EB/PA.
0.2750.3430.4110.4790.547
0.081 EB/PA better vs RHP than vs LHP (shrunk estimate).
89% credible interval: +0.042 to +0.120
How he hits
Hits it to Pull most often, and does the most damage there too.
Best batted balls
Where every ball Pavin Smith put in play landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught.
Hover a dot or a row to link the two; click to watch on Baseball Savant.
