Works counts and puts the ball in play; modest slug.
Gets on base by working the count
Matt Chapman walks at a near-elite clip — better than 82% of qualified hitters. The strikeouts pile up, though — only 38% of qualified hitters whiff more often.
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 463 qualified hitters.
Data through 2026-07-15.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the hitters whose profile looks most like this one.
Every plate appearance ends one of three ways: a strikeout (0 bases), a walk (1 base), or a ball in play worth its estimated bases.
The bar splits his value into those pieces, versus the league.
More bases is better. In the table, 100th percentile = best in MLB.
Ball-in-play basesWalk bases
Bases per plate appearance
.283
.105
Matt Chapman
.351
.084
League average
What a replacement bat would have done
over Matt Chapman's 352 plate appearances
137
Matt Chapman
127
Replacement level
▲ +10 bases above replacement (created 137 vs 127)
Matt Chapman
League
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better)
.440
.510
60th
Walk rate(higher = better)
11%
8%
82nd
Strikeout rate(fewer = better)
23%
23%
38th
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA)
Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 89% credible interval.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.
Headline EB/PA (0.429)
vs LHP94 PA0.459
vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.459 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.407 to 0.508, based on 94 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.490 EB/PA.
vs RHP241 PA0.415
vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.415 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.368 to 0.461, based on 241 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.379 EB/PA.
0.3510.3940.4380.4810.525
0.043 EB/PA better vs LHP than vs RHP (shrunk estimate).
89% credible interval: +0.010 to +0.082
How he hits
Hits it to Pull most often, and does the most damage to Center.
Best batted balls
Where every ball Matt Chapman put in play landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught.
Hover a dot or a row to link the two; click to watch on Baseball Savant.
