Rafael Marchán rarely strikes out — less often than 84% of qualified hitters. The contact is soft, though — only 3% of qualified hitters hit the ball with less authority. Early-season read — only 89 plate appearances so far.
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 463 qualified hitters.
Data through 2026-07-15.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the hitters whose profile looks most like this one.
Every plate appearance ends one of three ways: a strikeout (0 bases), a walk (1 base), or a ball in play worth its estimated bases.
The bar splits his value into those pieces, versus the league.
More bases is better. In the table, 100th percentile = best in MLB.
Ball-in-play basesWalk bases
Bases per plate appearance
.247
Rafael Marchán
.351
.084
League average
What a replacement bat would have done
over Rafael Marchán's 89 plate appearances
24
Rafael Marchán
32
Replacement level
▼ −8 bases below replacement (created 24 vs 32)
Rafael Marchán
League
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better)
.309
.510
15th
Walk rate(higher = better)
2%
8%
4th
Strikeout rate(fewer = better)
16%
23%
84th
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA)
Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 89% credible interval.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.
Rafael Marchán switch-hits — he can choose the platoon-advantaged side almost every plate appearance, so a small gap here is expected. It is not missing data or a modeling error.
Headline EB/PA (0.351)
vs LHP27 PA0.343
vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.343 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.272 to 0.413, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.246 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHP rate (0.246) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHP59 PA0.354
vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.354 EB/PA, 89% credible interval 0.285 to 0.416, based on 59 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.314 EB/PA.
0.2550.2990.3440.3890.434
0.010 EB/PA better vs RHP than vs LHP (shrunk estimate).
89% credible interval: -0.031 to +0.051
That interval crosses zero, so the model can’t confidently say which side he’s actually better against.
How he hits
Hits it to Pull most often, and does the most damage there too.
Best batted balls
Where every ball Rafael Marchán put in play landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught.
Hover a dot or a row to link the two; click to watch on Baseball Savant.
